Ian Palmer, Ph.D., Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA.
The Energy Mix.
In early 2024, fossil energy made up 31% of Romania’s energy (Figure1). This is far less than globally, where the fossil fraction is 83% of total, and this is responsible for 73% of carbon emissions. Assuming the same proportions, Romania’s 31% of fossil energy would cause 27% of carbon emissions. This is a relative healthy state of green.
But it could be readily improved, by replacing the coal sector (15%) by natural gas (15%) or by solar PV and storage batteries (8%). Cost-wise, solar/batteries would be one advantage over gas wells. A second advantage is a network of transmission lines that already exists between Romania and neighboring EU states.
The alternative, given the regional state of unrest, is more onshore or offshore gas wells that would provide pipeline energy security for Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine, possible even Hungary. Reducing gas supplied by Russia adds security, because the threat of European incursion won’t fade away soon.
Romania Energy
Electricity For Data Centers and AI.
Another advantage for expanding green solar PV and batteries is to feed the electric power into data centers for AI (Artificial Intelligence). This is a big thing when the global electrical supply grew by about 1,000 TWh in 2024, which is equivalent to bringing online 135 new nuclear reactors in 2024.
Projections are the U.S. will need an extra 1,000 GW by 2040, which is a bit less than the entire present gas production of 100 bcfd in the U.S. The oil and gas industry are leaning in to this opportunity, but new gas-fired power plants are in a logjam, and solar PV with batteries is cheaper and faster to install. AI is coming to Romania, and the country is in a position to capitalize on this.
Replacing Coal/Lignite By Renewables.
The National Recovery and Resilience Plan calls for phasing out coal and lignite by the end of 2032 and replacing them with low-carbon energy sources, including solar and wind renewables as well as hydrogen.
Denmark is a leading European country in regards to renewable energies. But the leader is actually a state down under called South Australia. In just 16 years, they have gone from zero to 75% low-carbon electric power, mainly from wind and solar and grid-scale storage batteries. It’s an entertaining story, as Elon Musk built the first grid-scale battery of about 100 MW – as a result of a wager with an Australian tech guru after the entire state lost its power due to several transmission lines collapsing as a mini-hurricane passed by. The battery was the largest in the world in 2016.
The population of the state is only 1.9 million (compared with Romania 19 million) but it shows what can be done when state government joins with industry behind an agreed goal. South Australia anticipates its carbon-free electric power will reach 100% by 2027. In 6 out of 8 past quarters, the wholesale price of electricity was lower than eastern Australian states where coal-fired power plants are dominant. But in the last 2 quarters, South Australia’s price exceeded the eastern states, apparently due to added costs of new transmission lines.
The eastern states of Queensland, NSW, and Victoria are ramping up their solar and wind renewables, stabilized by battery storage constructed where coal-fired power plants are closing down. The storage batteries in Australia are still reaching new heights, as the next section reveals.
Romania Could Invest In Storage Batteries.
The complaint often used to dismiss solar and wind renewables is the intermittent nature of the energy source. This lack of stability requires another source that can be hooked in, such as a peaker gas plant. But in Australia, there are ties to neighboring states which allow inflows or outflows of electricity. Along with this, electricity stability is being achieved by use of grid-scale batteries that store electricity for later use. Typical storage times are 2-4 hours, but longer times are coming.
A large new battery project at Stoney Creek (125 MW/1000 MWh) is designed for an 8-hour supply. The New South Wales (NSW) government supported by tender this improvement in dispatchable supply of electricity. To assist the state’s move away from coal-fired power, five 8-hour batteries are being built in NSW. As a further incentive, battery technology costs at Stoney Creek declined by 40% in the past year due to price changes in China.
In the U.S., installed solar capacity now totals 220 GW, and can provide 7% of U.S. electricity. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) doubled in 2024 to 29 GW, and is likely to grow almost 50% in 2025. This dispatchable energy from batteries helps to stabilize renewable power supplies in the U.S.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianpalmer/2025/03/19/eighteen-data-based-facts-to-weigh-in-on-us-policy-for-ai-power/
Australia started and leads the world in grid batteries, and the U.S. is catching up quickly. Battery storage may become a golden age as the demand for data centers and AI accelerates. Romania would do well to look down under for Australian expertise in BESS, as well as to look toward the U.S. An investment in technical expertise and on-ground BESS capacity might make Romania a center of excellence in this region of Europe.
Is Hydrogen A Good Low-Carbon Candidate For Romania?
The National Recovery and Resilience Plan calls for low-carbon energy sources, including solar and wind renewables as well as hydrogen, to replace coal and lignite by 2032. But it turns out that hydrogen is not a good low-carbon candidate, and here’s why.
In 2023-2024, large and small companies were jumping on hydrogen, including ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, and TotalEnergies. But there are serious headwinds. Reputable projections show hydrogen usage would likely rise to only 15% of total energy consumption. And one cost estimate above $7 trillion would be what it takes to make enough hydrogen for only 5% of total energy consumption. Getting from 5% to 15% would cost a great deal more.
There is a niche market of hydrogen for aviation/shipping fuel and the manufacture of cement, steel, and chemicals (fertilizers and plastics). But broad market application of hydrogen is very uncertain -- it’s unlikely that hydrogen would displace significant oil and gas usage in cars, or in gas-fired power plants, or even in gas pipelines for home heating. In short, hydrogen as a fuel is too little, too late.
The Trump Revolution.
Its not only about tariffs, but also energies. President Trump denies climate change and this biases his opinion against renewables. Offshore wind is out, by his reckoning. Oil and gas are in -- drill, baby, drill. Recently, coal is back in, although its well established that coal burns dirtier than other fossil energies -- not just greenhouse gases are emitted, but also particulate matter that can damage lungs of very young and old, causing problems such as asthma.
This administration is trying to undercut U.S. climate policies, and causing much uncertainty in the marketplace. Despite this, most of the world will continue along their path of reducing carbon emissions that cause global warming which is responsible for sea level rise, polar icecaps melting, glaciers retreating, and coral reefs bleaching.